April 2020 Market Commentary

Fear following the March 12th “Black Thursday” seems to have waned and April ended the month with bullish overtones as the Bitwise BITX rose nearly 27% in the final 10 days of the month. Alternative cryptocurrencies continued to show strength as ETH and XTZ led the pack of the top 10 cryptocurrencies with a 54.9% and 71.4% return, respectively.

Market participants appear to be growing increasingly bullish as the Bitcoin halving is now just 10 days away. Whether market behavior is a function of the supposed fundamental event or if we are simply seeing more of the usual wild speculation is debatable. Given research we’ve conducted previously on the impact of halvings and many alternative cryptocurrencies outperforming Bitcoin YTD, we lean towards the latter. The speculative bubble may be gaining steam again, but we caution against putting stock into any of the macro-predictions and narratives fueling current sentiment. The success or failure of those predictions are always 10-years out and accurate at a shockingly low rate.